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Jobboom Index for February

Ontario’s Index suffers a major drop

Ontario’s Jobboom forecast for February is down for a third consecutive month (−11.2), following significant job losses in the first month of the year (-28,300), adding to existing losses in November and October (-10,800). This is the first time in 12 months that Ontario’s Index slips below the ”fair” threshold. Throughout 2004, Ontario’s Index reported rather small fluctuations, remaining mostly within the “favourable” range, peaking in June, July and August with “excellent” employment levels. Last month’s job losses were mostly full-time positions in the general services industries (in the trade sector, in the information, culture and recreation sector and in the health and social assistance sector). Compared to the previous 120 months, February’s Index ranks 47th. In other words, over the past ten years, there were 73 months with weaker Indices. Over this same period, employment in Ontario grew by 24 percent.

   FEBRUARY 2005
   FORECAST
73.2%

FAIR

Toronto’s Regional Index : 67 percent — Fair
Losses of 3,000 positions in January, a meagre gain of 1,000 jobs in December and employment cuts of 25,500 positions in the three preceding months have contributed to another drop in Toronto’s Jobboom Index for February (−1.1). Toronto’s Index remains “fair” following a significant drop in December. This performance contrasts sharply with Toronto’s “excellent” employment level enjoyed from July to September 2004. This month’s Index ranks 62nd out of 120. In other words, over the past 120 months, there were 58 months with lesser Indices. From January 1995 to January 2005, the number of jobs in Toronto increased by 31 percent.

Ottawa-Gatineau’s Regional Index : 93.1 percent — Excellent
February’s Jobboom Index for the Ottawa-Gatineau region is up 3.1 percent following two consecutive monthly increases of 5.4 percent and 7 percent. This month’s results are mostly due to the creation of 700 jobs in January, as reported by Statistics Canada. The increases follow several months of stagnant employment figures that kept the region’s Index below the 80 percent mark. February’s Index ranks 5th out of 120. In other words, there were 115 months with lesser Indices over the past ten years. Over this same period, employment in the region grew by 23 percent.

Important Note: The Jobboom Index will soon be adjusted to reflect changes to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), based on the 2001 Census. The LFS changes will be released in February and may have an impact on future Jobboom Index forecasts, mainly with respect to Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) figures.

  INDEX
(percent)		 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION COMPARED TO JANUARY
ONTARIO 73.2 FAIR -11.2
Ottawa-Gatineau Region 93.1 Excellent 3.1
Toronto Region 67.0 Fair -1.1